Hubdub—The World’s News Forcaster Or Wisdom Of The Crowds Tool
By ajay at January 28, 2008 | 8:53 pm | Print
What Company Is Offering:
Hubdub is all about letting you actively participate in the day’s news, following today’s events, predicting their outcomes and competing with other users to find out who the real news junkies are.
How it Works:
Simply search for the topic in the search box and if there is already a question on it, click on the question and see all the news related to it and how the likely outcome has changed over time. If your search returns no results, then create a question yourself. You can track your predictions and the questions you’ve created in My Hubdub.
A prediction market is market like any other but here people are trading predictions of future events. One of the nice side benefits of prediction markets is the current ‘price’ for an outcome tends to be a very good forecast of the likelihood of that event occurring. A good introduction to prediction markets is provided by Wikipedia. Hubdub uses modified version of the Market Scoring Rule invented by Professor Robin Hanson at George Mason University.
Hubdub dollars (H$s) are the units of currency used on Hubdub. New users are allocated H$1,000 when they join and all users receive H$20 each day they log into the site.
Your Price’ is the level at which you make your prediction.
For example, if an outcome currently has a 42% chance of occurring and you predict that it will occur, you are predicting that the chance of the outcome occurring is greater than 42%. The impact of you making your prediction is that the current forecast will move slightly. If you risk a lot in making your prediction then the forecast will move a lot.
Your Price is approximately the average between the current user forecast for that outcome and the new forecast once you have made your prediction.
More at:http://www.hubdub.com/
